A UCLA-led group of researchers has taken a unique technique
to explain the manner in which technology evolve in cutting-edge society.
Borrowing a way that biologists may use to look at the evolution of flowers or
animals, the scientists plotted the "births" and "deaths"
of every American-made car and truck model from 1896 to 2014.
In addition to uncovering interesting insights approximately
the auto industry, the method -- which could be used to study the evolution of
phones, song, TVs or any variety of other products -- gives a new lens via
which researchers could take a look at cultural and technological exchange.
The research, which turned into published in the open-get
admission to journal Palgrave Communications, turned into led by using Erik
Gjesfjeld, a postdoctoral student in UCLA's Institute for Society and Genetics.
"vehicles are notably various however additionally have
a detailed records of changes, making them a version device for investigating
the evolution of technology," Gjesfjeld said.
The team drew records from three,575 vehicle fashions made
with the aid of 172 one of a kind manufacturers, noting the first and ultimate
year each changed into synthetic.
"This is just like while a paleontologist first dates a
selected fossil and remaining sees a selected fossil," Gjesfjeld said.
The method allowed them to discover intervals of time while
new car fashions have been being added at quicker- or slower-than-common fees;
and to pick out durations whilst vehicles were being discontinued in more or
lesser numbers. for example, the take a look at observed that after world
warfare II, when vehicle models and manufacturers mounted themselves because
the dominant players, the wide variety of new automobile models declined
substantially; the authors write that this changed into in component due to the
fact producing absolutely new vehicles could had been more expensive than
continuing set up designs.
A UCLA-led team of researchers has taken a completely unique
approach to explain the way wherein technology evolve in present day society.
Borrowing a technique that biologists would possibly use to study the evolution
of vegetation or animals, the scientists plotted the "births" and
"deaths" of every American-made automobile and truck model from 1896
to 2014.
Similarly to uncovering exciting insights approximately the
automobile industry, the approach -- which can be used to observe the evolution
of phones, track, TVs or any quantity of different merchandise -- gives a new
lens thru which researchers ought to have a look at cultural and technological
exchange.
The studies, which turned into posted in the open-get
admission to magazine Palgrave Communications, turned into led with the aid of
Erik Gjesfjeld, a postdoctoral student in UCLA's Institute for Society and
Genetics.
Courtesy of Erik Gjesfjeld Erik Gjesfjeld "motors are
distinctly various however also have an in depth history of modifications,
making them a version device for investigating the evolution of
generation," Gjesfjeld said.
The crew drew records from three,575 vehicle fashions made
via 172 exceptional manufacturers, noting the primary and remaining year every
was synthetic.
"That is much like whilst a paleontologist first dates
a selected fossil and closing sees a selected fossil," Gjesfjeld said.
The method allowed them to discover durations of time whilst
new car fashions have been being delivered at quicker- or slower-than-normal
charges; and to perceive durations while automobiles had been being
discontinued in greater or lesser numbers. for instance, the examine observed
that after world war II, when vehicle fashions and manufacturers mounted
themselves because the dominant players, the range of new automobile models
declined appreciably; the authors write that this turned into in component
because generating completely new motors would have been more luxurious than
persevering with installed designs.
So although maintaining automobile models for long periods
of time -- the Chevrolet Corvette and Ford Mustang are top examples -- would
possibly make greater feel from a control perspective than introducing new ones
every 12 months, the method has had a clear impact on the variety and evolution
of the industry: fewer new car fashions, less diversity many of the models
inside the market, and much less of a threat for radical new designs and
fashions to emerge.
One gain of the new technique is that it permits scientists
to test theories approximately a product's evolution.
"This is a framework
that lets in for data-based testing of hypotheses, which isn't not
unusual," said Michael Alfaro, a UCLA professor of ecology and
evolutionary biology inside the UCLA college and senior author of the take a
look at.
Making use of the method to American vehicles enabled the
scientists to check three hypotheses:
• The variety of automobile fashions could boom for the
duration of periods of economic growth and decline throughout times with less
monetary growth. • modifications inside the variety of automobile models might
be driven by adjustments in oil costs. • The range of vehicle models could be
prompted with the aid of the number of different car fashions available on the
market.
What they found was that opposition in the market played a
larger role inside the variety of car fashions than either economic boom or oil
costs.
Alfaro said making use of an evolutionary biology technique
worked so properly due to the fact the automotive industry's technological
information are very just like the paleontological fossil record.
"Frequently, it is superior," he stated. "we
find in best a handful of instances a fossil report this entire."
based totally on the examine, the researchers can
undertaking how the electric automobile marketplace will evolve over the next
numerous years. Alfaro said the sphere now is in an early segment of rapid
diversification, and even though it's possibly that many more electric and
hybrid fashions could be added over the subsequent 15 to 20 years, many may not
live on for extremely long because of growing opposition.
This, he stated, will
sooner or later cause consolidation, with a small range of dominant models a
good way to thrive.
Ultimately, Gjesfjeld said, the method should assist us make
sense of the bewildering array of technology human beings have created.
"notwithstanding the usage of severa technologies in our everyday
existence, we lack a basic know-how of how all this technological variety came
to be," he stated.
The study's co-authors are Jonathan Chang, a UCLA graduate
pupil in ecology and evolutionary biology; Daniele Silvestro, an assistant
professor of computational phylogenetics at Sweden's college of Gothenburg, and
Christopher Kelty, a UCLA professor of anthropology and information sciences.
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